That’s a sign that inflation probably has peaked. The survey provided evidence that supply constraints are easing, with prices paid by factories for key inputs declining to a two-year low. The report states: “Companies continue to hire at strong rates, with few indications of layoffs, hiring freezes or headcount reduction through attrition.” Any reading above 50 constitutes expansion. However, July’s figure beat expectations and indicates continuing expansion in the overall economy, after the severe pandemic-induced contraction in April and May 2020. The July Manufacturing PMI registered 52.8%, slightly down from the reading of 53% in June. manufacturing sector grew in July, with the overall economy racking up a 26th consecutive month of growth, according to ISM’s survey of the nation’s supply executives. The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business conveyed mixed results this week, but with more good news than bad.Įconomic activity in the U.S. Investors also are encouraged by the latest manufacturing data. stock indices were bouncing back, as corporate earnings continue to show strength. However, in pre-market futures trading Wednesday, the major U.S. This brinkmanship between the world’s two largest economies is roiling markets, in large part because the island is home to tech companies that play outsized roles in the global economy. Washington has retorted that foreign rivals don’t dictate the travel plans of a congressional leader. China sent warships Tuesday to surround Taiwan and conduct live-fire drills. Indeed, Putin’s revanchism has encouraged China’s own territorial ambitions, which in turn has prompted the Pentagon to war-game simulated Chinese attacks of Taiwan.īeijing is decrying Pelosi’s visit and threatening severe (albeit unspecified) retaliation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) embarked on an Asian tour, with Taiwan on the schedule.Ĭhina views the democratic island off its coast as a natural part of the mainland, much the same way Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine to be an integral part of Mother Russia. Meanwhile, China has its red knickers in a twist over Taiwan. How long will this partisan wrangling over a “recession” continue? At least until the November midterm elections are over. Generally, Republicans argue we’re in a recession and Democrats disagree. Where commentators come down in the debate largely depends on political affiliation and not necessarily empirical data. What’s more, corporate profits and management guidance this earnings season have been surprisingly upbeat. The economic optimists currently point out that a recession determination is belied by healthy readings on such vital indicators as jobs, consumer spending, corporate earnings, and personal and business balance sheets. So when we get the official word from NBER, we’ll either be in the middle of a recession or at the tail end of one. The NBER committee purposely takes its time in making an announcement, often as much as a year after a recession has actually started. The numerous metrics applied (e.g., two straight quarters of negative GDP) tend to be backward looking.
are officially declared by a committee of eight economists at the private, non-profit National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Some analysts use only this criterion to determine whether we’re in a recession, but most weigh other factors as well. in the first half of 2022 experienced two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. My suggestion is that you view the data holistically and not get hung up on semantics. is technically in a recession.įederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that he doesn’t think the U.S. American’s overpaid, overfed and overcoddled television pundits are in a verbal slugfest as to whether the U.S.
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